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代写essay-中美关系前景分析 COVID-19大流行触发的去全球化趋势中的关系

发布时间:2020-07-03  | 点击数:1030

自第一次工业化革命以来,全球化已经进行了数百年,为参与这一趋势的国家带来了丰硕的成果。中国从1978年开始实行改革开放政策,并于2001年加入WTO,数十年来积极参与全球化,中国从全球化中获得了很多财富。但是,全球化也带来了许多问题。例如,财富仅流向一些国家和少数几个国家,收入差距,社会两极分化,政府税收和失业等问题日益严重,更糟糕的是,全球化增加了埃博拉,H1N1等全球大流行的可能性(B.McMahan,M.Nichter,2019)。全球化最初旨在促进世界上资源和产业的自由分配和劳动分工。但是在流行之后,一些规则突然被打破了。一旦产业链受到影响,许多国家发现自己无法制造普通口罩和防护服。国家和政府的经济主权消失了。因此,从经济的角度来看,这种流行病使人们对全球化产生了怀疑。他们又想一想,全球化做了什么?有人说,爆发可能是全球化的丧钟,是全球化的最后一击。

Since the First Industrialization Revolution, globalization has involved for hundreds years, bringing fruitful results to countries engaged in this trend. China adopted the Reform and Opening up policy since 1978 and joined WTO in 2001, with decades of active engagement in globalization, China has achieved a lot of wealth from globalization. However, globalization has also created many problems. For example, wealth only flowed to some countries and a few people, and there have been increasing income disparity, social polarization, government taxation, and job loss, what might even worse is that globalization increases the possibility of global pandemic like Ebola, H1N1 etc (B. McMahan, M. Nichter, 2019). Globalization was originally intended to promote the free allocation and division of labor of resources and industries in the world. But in the wake of the epidemic, some rules have suddenly broken down. Many countries are finding themselves unable to make ordinary masks and protective clothing once the industry chain is affected.The economic sovereignty of states and governments is gone. Therefore, on an economic level, the epidemic has cast doubt on globalization. And they think again, what does globalization do? Some people say that the outbreak may be the death knell of globalization, the final blow to globalization.


面对大流行,没有一个国家为爆发疫情做好准备,不可避免地会出现延误和恐慌。在这方面,有声音说这种流行病将完全结束全球化,世界最大的经济体美国将从全球化趋势中退缩,它与最大的合作伙伴以及竞争对手中国的关系将降至冰点。根据我的观点,我不同意这一观点,相反,我认为全球化宁愿回到传统投资和贸易形式的1980年代之前的“有限全球化”状态。各国将再次努力掌握本国的经济主权,通过“产业回报”调整产业结构,将与安全和民生有关的重要产业重新纳入本国和交通,通讯相对便利的国家。因此,中美这种关系将在许多方面挑战这种关系。如果不采取任何措施共同应对这一大流行病,那么两国关系将更糟。

In facing of pandemic, no country is prepared for an outbreak, and there will inevitably be delays and panic. In this connection, there are voices that the epidemic will end globalization altogether, and the world largest economy America will retreat from the globalization trend and it’s relationship with its biggest partner as well as competitor, China, will drop to a freezing point. While according to my perspective, I don’t agree with that, instead, I believe globalization would rather return to the pre-1980s state of "limited globalization" in the traditional form of investment and trade. Each country will strive to master the economic sovereignty of its own country again, adjust the industrial structure through "industry return", and put important industries related to safety and people's livelihood back into its own country and countries with relatively convenient transportation and communication. Therefore, China-U.S. relationship will be challenged by this trend in many aspects. If no measures be taken to address the pandemic together, the two-sides relationship will be worse.  


几周前,二十国集团领导人呼吁全球应对这一大流行病。 人们认为,也许这两个超级大国美中两国将搁置分歧和冲突,并携手抗击人类共同的敌人-COVID-19。 但是,令所有人感到失望的是,二十国集团(G20)并没有带来任何希望的结果,它成为了各国摆脱责任,相互指责的战场。 没有取得积极的结果,如果各国彼此不合作并采取被动措施,大流行病将造成更大的损失。 北京大学国际政治经济研究中心主任,教授王勇在中国全球化研究中心CCG举办的研讨会上说:“根据WTO的评估,如果不采取行动,世界经济今年将下降33%。 正在采取积极措施”。

Weeks ago, the G20 leaders called for a global response to the pandemic. People thought that maybe the U.S and China, the two superpowers would set aside disagreements and conflicts, and would join hands together to fight against the common enemy to humanity- the COVID-19. However, to everyone’s disappointment, G20 didn’t brought any hopeful results, it became a battle field for countries to escape from responsibilities and point fingers at each other. No positive results have been attained, and if countries keeps uncooperative with each other and take measures passively, more loss would be caused by the pandemic. In a seminar hold by CCG (Research Center on China Globalization), Wang Yong, Director and Professor from Center for International Political Economy at Peking University once said, “according to WTO assessment, the world economy will decrease for 33% this year if no positive measures being taken”.

由于冠状病毒对其金融,经济和社会部门造成了严重影响,现在,华盛顿方面呼吁与中国的技术和供应链脱钩。 军事领域的紧张局势正在加剧; 在美国社区,针对华人的种族主义正在兴起。 中美在外交,贸易,技术和人与人之间的关系正在恶化。 那么,这种关系在未来将如何发展?两国应如何做才能最大程度地减少DE全球化带来的负面影响?

With sever impacts brought by coronavirus on its financial, economic and social sector, now the Washington side is calling for decoupling from China’s technology and supply chains. And there are increasing tensions in the military sector; racism against Chinese in American communities is emerging. Sino-U.S. relationship in diplomacy, trade, technology and people-to-people exchange is deteriorating. So how will the relationship involve in the future and what the two countries should do to minimize the negative influence brought by DE-globalization?


中国于1972年恢复了与美国的外交关系,在贸易,技术,教育和其他领域的积极成果已极大地传递给两国。但是,随着近年来中国快速发展壮大,美国开始采取对华政策的新趋势,而这种变化可以追溯到2017年,当时特朗普执政后发生了重大变化。据观察,自2009年奥巴马执政以来,中美关系一直在向不利的方向发展。今天的关系包括贸易摩擦,香港问题,台湾问题,人权问题,南海问题,技术脱钩和知识产权问题等,这些问题多年来一直是热门话题。特朗普上任后,他试图纠正贸易顺差并使该国再次繁荣。华盛顿方面将中国视为其主要战略竞争对手,战略“竞争者”和所谓的“修正主义国家”。然后,美国声称将在整个政府的长期战略竞争中与中国竞争。因此,特朗普政府的第一个主要事件是与中国的贸易摩擦,这演变成了一场贸易战。

China recovered its diplomacy relationship with the U.S. in 1972, and positive results in trade, technology, education and other sectors have been greatly delivered to both countries. However, as China grows stronger with rapid pace in recent years, the U.S. starter to adopt a new trend of policy toward China, and such change can be traced back to 2017, when major changes took place after the Trump administration. According to observation, China-U.S relations have been developing in a bad direction since 2009 during the Obama administration.Issues in China-U.S. relations today includes trade frictions, Hong Kong issue, Taiwan issue, human rights problems, the south China sea issue, technological decoupling and intellectual property rights etc., they have been hot topics for many years. After Trump took office, he tried to correct the trade surplus and to make the country great again. Washington side has viewed china as their main strategic rival, a strategic "competitor" and a so-called "revisionist state". Then, the United States claims to be competing with China in an all-government, long-term strategic competition. So the first major event of the trump administration was trade friction with China, which turned into a trade war.


经过几轮谈判,贸易战于今年早些时候结束,当时中美达成了贸易协议的第一阶段,该协议的主要内容是中国在未来两年内购买了价值2000亿美元的美国商品。 包括石油和天然气,农产品,制成品和金融服务,以及改善知识产权保护,终止强制性技术转让和放松货币管制。

After several rounds of negotiation, the trade war ended earlier this year when China and the United States reached the first phase of a trade agreement.The main elements of the agreement are for China to buy $200bn worth of us goods over the next two years, including oil and gas, agricultural products, manufactured goods and financial services, as well as improving intellectual property protection, ending forced technology transfers and loosening currency controls.


特朗普原本打算在今年11月美国总统大选后举行第二阶段的贸易谈判。但是,中美两国都经历了严重的流行病,第二阶段贸易谈判的时间和结果变得更加不确定,第二阶段应该集中在对中国国有企业的补贴,市场准入,外国投资审查和网络安全。在今年1月爆发covid-19期间,中国曾希望与两国加强合作,共同对抗covid-19。疫情爆发后,美国政府对中国的态度既不稳定又不一致。特朗普最初称赞中国在抗击该疾病方面的透明性,而副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)说,中美正在合作。特朗普在演讲中直接将covid-19称为“中国病毒”,误导人们以为该病毒起源于中国。但是,越来越多的分析和研究论文表明,中国不是COVID-19的原产国。由剑桥大学的Peter Forster博士撰写并发表在PNAS上的研究论文“ SARS-CoV-2基因组的系统进化网络分析”表明,COVID-19具有三种类型,分别是Tpye A,B型和C型。其中,A型是起源病毒,后来在传播过程中涉及B型和C型。在中国诊断出的人群主要感染B型病毒,只有少数感染A型病毒,而在美国,超过三分之二的患者感染A型病毒(Peter Forster,2020年)。具体证据表明,中国不是COVID-19的原产国,而是第一个被冠状病毒感染的国家。但是,所谓的“中国病毒”或“武汉病毒”已经深深地伤害了中国人民,给中国留下了错误的印象,甚至引发了对中国的歧视和种族主义,许多海外华人甚至遭到其种族主义邻居的攻击。 。两国之间的人与人之间的关系已降至最低点。如果特朗普政府和媒体继续将COVID-19称为“中国病毒”,那么人与人之间的关系和仇恨可能会进一步恶化并进一步加深。

Trump originally intended to hold the second stage of trade talks after the us presidential election in November this year. However, both China and the us have suffered serious epidemics, and the timing and outcome of the second stage of trade talks have become more uncertain.The second stage should focus on subsidies for Chinese state-owned enterprises, market access, foreign investment review and cyber security. During the outbreak of covid-19 in January this year, China had hoped for more cooperation with the two countries to fight covid-19. while in the wake of the outbreak, the U.S. government's attitude toward China has been both erratic and inconsistent. Trump initially praised China's transparency in its fight against the disease, while Vice President Mike Pence said China and the United States are cooperating. In his speech, Trump directly referred to covid-19 as the "China virus", misleading people to believe that the virus originates from China. However, there are an increasing number of analysis and academic papers show that China is not the origin country of COVID-19. According to the research paper”Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes” written by Dr. Peter Forster from Cambridge University and published on PNAS, COVID-19 has three types, which are namely Tpye A, Type B, and Type C. Among these, Type A is the origin virus, and later involved into type B and type C in the process of transmission. People diagnosed in China are mainly infected with Type B and only a few are infected with type A while over two thirds of patients in the United States are infected with type A (Peter Forster, 2020). Concrete evidences have shown that China is not the origin country of COVID-19, in stead, it is the first country being hit by the conoravirus. However, the so-called“ China Virus” or “Wuhan Virus” has deeply harmed the Chinese People, and stamped a false impression on China, and even triggered discrimination and racism against China, many overseas Chinese people were even attacked by their racism neighbors. The people-to-people relationship between the two countries has dropped to a bottom low point. If Trump Administration and the media keeps call COVID-19 as China Virus, the people-to-people relationship and hatred among people could be worse and further deepened.

未来,特朗普政府和美国国会将继续出台新的政策和措施,加强部门间的协调,对中国在贸易关系,技术竞争,网络安全,台湾,香港,西藏,新疆等方面施加全面压力。以及其他许多问题(王吉思,2020年)。

在对抗这种大流行时,美国政府发现他们需要进口中药以及制药原料,医疗设备,因此他们感觉出了问题–他们将许多战略性产业链放置在本国以外,并失去了对某些战略性商品的控制,没有医疗必需品,这是一场艰苦的战斗。因此,在大流行之后,美国很可能会从海外撤回其一些关键的产业链,并取消国际贸易中的海外订单(Liuru,2020年)。后者已经在发生,成千上万的中国工厂因取消海外订单而关闭甚至破产。这一趋势将在未来几个月持续,给中国经济带来严重损害。

In the future, the trump administration and the U.S. congress will continue to introduce new policies and measures, strengthen coordination among departments and exert all-round pressure on China on trade relations, technological competition, cyber security, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, xinjiang and many other issues (Wang Jisi, 2020).

In fighting the pandemic, the United States government found they need to import Chinese medicines and pharmaceutical raw materials, medical equipment, so they feel something is going wrong- they placed many strategic industrial chains outside their country and lost their control over some strategic goods, making it a tough battle without medical necessities. So after the pandemic, the U.S will be very likely to retreat some of its key industrial chains from overseas, and to cancel overseas orders in international trade (Liuru, 2020). And the latter one is already happening, thousands of Chinese Factories has closed or even bankrupted due to canceling of overseas orders. And this trend will be lasted in the next few month, bringing sever damage to Chinese economy.

在技术领域,美国将继续严厉打击华为,而中国推广5G网络的计划将面临阻力。美国通过外交,司法和行政手段镇压和抵制华为,特朗普政府高级官员多次强调华为对国家安全和民主政治制度的危害,企图阻止华为的使用。 5G网络建设中的设备。在COVID 19之后,美国有其海军侦察机在南中国海上空飞行,以加强其印度太平洋战略并鼓励越南,但在全世界范围内触发军事冲突是否适当?患有这种疾病?美国将其全球领导地位带到各个国家与共同的敌人作斗争不是头等大事吗?

那么,中国将来将如何面对美国可能出台的新外交和贸易政策带来的压力?自贸易战宣布以来,中国已经并将并将继续更加重视贸易,投资,金融和技术领域的自主创新。中国需要的产品,无论是5G,航空发动机还是其他产品,都应由中国自己制造。在过去的47年中建立的真诚和友谊很可能会崩溃,如果无法进行谈判,不信任和不喜欢的感觉将会增加。面对与美国分手的挑战,中国将更加重视与发展中国家的关系,重新树立共同的人类共同体的观念,并加大在联合国及其附属机构如联合国的工作。总体而言,中国准备面对严峻的挑战。

 In the technology sector, the U.S will continue to crackdown on Huawei, and China’s plan to spread the 5G network will face headwinds. The United States has used diplomatic, judicial and administrative means to suppress and boycott Huawei, and senior officials of the trump administration have on many occasions stressed the harm of Huawei to national security and democratic political system, in an attempt to block the use of Huawei equipment in 5G network construction. In the wake of COVID 19, the the United States had its navy surveillance aircraft flying over the south China sea, in an attempt to strengthen its Indo-pacific strategy and encourage Vietnam, but is it appropriate to trigger military conflicts while the whole world is suffering from this disease? Shouldn’t it be the top priority that the United States take its global leadership to unit countries to fight against the common enemy?

So how will China face the pressure from the U.S’s possible new diplomatic and trade policies in the future? Since the declaration of trade war, China has placed and will continue to place greater emphasis on independent innovation in trade, investment, finance and technology. The products China needs, whether 5G, aero-engines or anything else, should be made by China itself. The good faith and friendship build in the past 47 years are very likely to collapse, feelings of distrust and dislike will increase if negotiations cannot be made. Faced with challenges of break up with America, China will attach greater importance to its relations with developing countries, re-established the concept of a common human community, and intensify its efforts in the work of the United Nations and its affiliated bodies, such as the world health organization .In general, China is prepared to face stormy challenges.

总之,疫情对中美关系造成了相当大的影响。 双边关系正在以更快的速度下降,官方关系几乎被冻结,缺乏战略互信的情况日益严重,人民之间的相互反感情绪是空前的。 将来,中美贸易协定第一阶段的实施将更加困难。 经济和技术的逐步脱钩已成为不可逆转的趋势,各个部门之间的交流将进一步受到压缩。 这是自1970年代初中美建交以来最困难的时期,这一阶段将持续多长时间,底线难以预测。

In conclusion, the outbreak has caused a considerable impact on china-us relations. Bilateral relations are declining at a faster pace, official relations are almost frozen, the lack of strategic mutual trust is increasingly serious, and the sentiment of mutual antipathy among the people is unprecedented. In the future, the implementation of the first phase of china-us trade agreement will be more difficult. The gradual decoupling of economy and technology has become an irreversible trend, and exchanges between various sectors will be further compressed. This is the most difficult period since the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the United States in the early 1970s.How long this phase will last and the bottom line is hard to predict.


全球COVID 19爆发的当前情况并不乐观,因此绝对不是进行政治批评的合适时机。中国的经验证明,人们可以打败冠状病毒,其他国家应搁置争议,与中国积极沟通,听取其建议。全球化是不可逆转的趋势,因此未来世界范围内的大流行可能还会再次出现。我们应该做什么?在受到病毒威胁时立即关闭或将来采取被动行动。防止全球化带来的不利条件对各国而言永远不是一个好的解决方案,相反,我们应该重新考虑当前的国际组织计划,并改革或重建新的以人的共同命运为重中之重的计划(大伟(2020年)。最重要的是,所有国家都应在这种自然灾害中保持谦卑,并从我们的不合作,不透明,掩盖应有的责任,在灾难面前傲慢自大和不作准备的错误中吸取教训。正如美中贸易理事会主席克雷格·艾伦(Craig Allen)在CCG近期举办的研讨会上曾呼吁的那样,“在全球紧急情况发生后,我们要做的第一件事就是建立全球预防大流行的合作计划,以避免这种悲剧发生。从未来再次发生”。

The current situation of global COVID 19 outbreak is not optimistic, so it is definitely not the right time for political criticism. China's experience has proved that people can defeat the Coronavirus, other countries should put aside disputes and actively communicate with China and listen to its Suggestions. And globalization is an irreversible trend, so pandemic across the world is likely to appear again in the future. What should we do? To shut doors now or to act passively in the future when threatened by virus. It is never a good solution for countries to do so to prevent the disadvantages brought by globalization, in stead, we should rethink the current scheme for international organization, and reform or reestablish new ones that put the shared human destiny as their top priority (Dawei, 2020). And most importantly, all countries should stay humble in such natural disaster and draw lessons from our mistakes of being uncooperative, not being transparent, shielding due responsibilities, being arrogant in face of disaster and making no preparations. Just as what Craig Allen, President of US-China Business Council, once appealed in a recent seminar hosted by CCG, “The first thing we need to do after this global emergency is to establish a global cooperative scheme for pandemic prevention to avoid such tragic from happening again in the future”.

  

References

1. Liuru, An Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on China’s Industrial Chain. China Technology, the 3rd Edition, March 2020, P31-P35

2. Peter Forster, Phylogenetic Network Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Genomes, PNAS, April 8, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004999117

3. Dawei, Cooperation is the Only Option to Fight Against the Pandemic, the Paper, April 8, 2020, https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_6874817

4. Wang Jisi. "Assessing the radical transformation of U.S. policy toward China", China International Strategy Review, 2020

5. B. McMahan, M. Nichter. Medical Anthropology. 2019, P45

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